JK

Loss prevention · Europe

Shrink Signal

Eight Eurostat offence categories across 41 countries, turned into a priority order you can defend in a room. It measures recorded crime pressure on a market — not retail shrink, and not loss. That distinction is the whole point, so it is stated here rather than buried.

Read this before the charts

Loss Pressure Index

# Country Index Pressure 5-year trend Confidence Categories

Pressure is the country's percentile against the other reporting countries in the reference year, averaged over the categories it actually reports. Trend is the median change across those categories over the window. Confidence is reporting completeness, not accuracy — a grade A country can still record crime differently from its neighbour.

Ranked by category

Offences per 100,000 inhabitants, as published by Eurostat. Countries that did not report this category in this year are absent, not zero.

Germany, category by category

Within one country the recording practice is broadly constant, which makes the trend the sounder reading. Each line is indexed to its own first available year, so categories of very different size can share an axis.

Germany against its neighbours

Different source · not comparable with the charts above

Germany, from the national statistic

Everything above this line is Eurostat. Everything below it is the Bundeskriminalamt's own Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik, which counts to German recording rules rather than the harmonised international definition. The two are never joined: splicing a BKA year onto a Eurostat line would put a definition change in the middle of a trend and hide it. What BKA gives that Eurostat cannot is on the right — a shoplifting category, a clearance rate, sixteen Bundesländer, and a year Eurostat has not published yet.

By Bundesland

# Bundesland Per 100,000 Cases Cleared

The same category since 1987

Rate on the left axis, the share of cases police closed with a suspect on the right. A clearance rate is not a recovery rate.

What this panel does not say

How the index is built